Meta Information for Submission: Target Audience: Quantitative Finance & Data Science Community Distribution Channel: Technical Blog Post Introduction: The Naive Baseline Problem In quantitative finance, a common, naive benchmark for asset accumulation is Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA). It is a zero-information strategy: it assumes the market is efficient and that current price reflects all available information. However, Bitcoin exhibits well-documented, highly autocorrelated market regimes and extreme cyclicality. Unlike traditional equities, Bitcoin possesses a transparent, immutable ledger that allows us to calculate the exact cost basis of all market participants at any given time. ...